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April Quinnipiac Poll Shows Biden, Trump in Dead Heat; Stein Leads Robinson by 8%

Source: Quinnipiac University Poll

North Carolina is perhaps the most important battleground state in this November’s election and if President Joe Biden wins here, it makes it nearly impossible for Donald Trump to win without upset victories in traditionally blue or blue-leaning states.

With that in mind, the results from a Quinnipiac University Poll of registered North Carolina voters conducted in early April should be welcome news for Democrats and cause for some concern for Republicans.

According to the poll, the presidential match-up between Biden and Trump is currently considered a dead heat and too close to call. Trump is leading 48% to 46%, but that’s within the margin of error, meaning that the race is effectively tied.

The poll also asked voters what the most urgent issues facing the country are today out of a list of 10 options.

Among Republicans, the top issue is immigration at 43%, followed by the economy at 31%. Democrats named their top issue as preserving democracy in the U.S. at 33%, followed by racial equality at 11%. Independents said their top issues are the economy, immigration and preserving democracy in the U.S. – each with 22% of the vote.

The 21-point difference between Republicans and independents on immigration is something to watch – Trump has 94% support among GOP voters in North Carolina so playing up immigration will get his base rabid, but it’s very possible it will turn away independent voters who are currently backing Trump 49% to 41% over Biden, according to the poll.

Although the poll results are much better for Biden than they have been in the past, there are still concerns and his campaign will need to be laser-focused on their efforts in the Tar Heel State. Realizing the importance of this state, his campaign recently announced the opening of 10 new field offices in strategic locations across North Carolina.

Perhaps the best news for Democrats to come out of the poll is that Attorney General Josh Stein currently has a commanding lead over right-wing extremist Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial race.

Poll respondents preferred Stein to Robinson by an 8% margin – 52% to 44%. Stein has 96% support among Democrats compared to just 87% support for Robinson among Republicans, 8% of whom said they would vote for Stein. Independents support Stein 52% to 43%.

Respondents were asked if they liked Stein and Robinson as people and whether they liked their positions on the issues.

For Stein, 45% said they liked him as a person and 13% said they did not. Forty percent of voters said they liked Robinson as a person but 31% said they did not.

When it comes to their positions on the issues, 39% said they liked Stein’s positions and 31% said they did not. Robinson received 40% support for his positions, but 40% also said they didn’t like his positions.

Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the gubernatorial race, 27% said the economy, 16% said preserving democracy and 13% said education.

When split by party, Republicans named the economy as the top issue at 40%, followed by immigration at 16% and preserving democracy at 11%.

Democrats named their top issue as preserving democracy at 24%, followed by education at 14%, the economy at 12% and 10% said abortion was their top issue.

Independents named their top issue as the economy at 30%, followed by education at 15% and preserving democracy at 13%.

When it comes to the current governor, voters approved of the job Roy Cooper has done in his seven years in office by 12% – 51% to 39%. 

U.S. Senators Ted Budd (29% approval, 42% disapproval) and Thom Tillis (31% approval, 49% disapproval) didn’t fare too well in the poll.

Some of the most interesting numbers to come out of the poll were about the economy. 

Only 31% of voters described the nation’s economy as excellent (5%) or good (26%), while 67% described it either as not so good (30%) or poor (37%) and 53% of voters think the economy is getting worse. Despite those numbers, 60% of those surveyed described their current financial situation as either excellent (9%) or good (51%).

“It’s a head-scratcher when you do the math. Sixty percent of North Carolina’s voters say they are doing just fine financially, but a whopping 67 percent say the nation’s economy is in bad shape,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

The final question Quinnipiac asked voters about was abortion. Sixty-three percent of voters said abortion should be legal in either all cases (27%) or most cases (36%) and 30% said it should be illegal in either most cases (22%) or all cases (8%).

The poll of 1,401 North Carolina self-identified registered voters was conducted from April 4-8 with a margin of error of + / – 2.6%.

North Carolina is perhaps the most important battleground state in this November’s election and if President Joe Biden wins here, it makes it nearly impossible for Donald Trump to win without upset victories in traditionally blue or blue-leaning states.

With that in mind, the results from a Quinnipiac University Poll of registered North Carolina voters conducted in early April should be welcome news for Democrats and cause for some concern for Republicans.

According to the poll, the presidential match-up between Biden and Trump is currently considered a dead heat and too close to call. Trump is leading 48% to 46%, but that’s within the margin of error, meaning that the race is effectively tied.

The poll also asked voters what the most urgent issues facing the country are today out of a list of 10 options.

Among Republicans, the top issue is immigration at 43%, followed by the economy at 31%. Democrats named their top issue as preserving democracy in the U.S. at 33%, followed by racial equality at 11%. Independents said their top issues are the economy, immigration and preserving democracy in the U.S. – each with 22% of the vote.

The 21-point difference between Republicans and independents on immigration is something to watch – Trump has 94% support among GOP voters in North Carolina so playing up immigration will get his base rabid, but it’s very possible it will turn away independent voters who are currently backing Trump 49% to 41% over Biden, according to the poll.

Although the poll results are much better for Biden than they have been in the past, there are still concerns and his campaign will need to be laser-focused on their efforts in the Tar Heel State. Realizing the importance of this state, his campaign recently announced the opening of 10 new field offices in strategic locations across North Carolina.

Perhaps the best news for Democrats to come out of the poll is that Attorney General Josh Stein currently has a commanding lead over right-wing extremist Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial race.

Poll respondents preferred Stein to Robinson by an 8% margin – 52% to 44%. Stein has 96% support among Democrats compared to just 87% support for Robinson among Republicans, 8% of whom said they would vote for Stein. Independents support Stein 52% to 43%.

Respondents were asked if they liked Stein and Robinson as people and whether they liked their positions on the issues.

For Stein, 45% said they liked him as a person and 13% said they did not. Forty percent of voters said they liked Robinson as a person but 31% said they did not.

When it comes to their positions on the issues, 39% said they liked Stein’s positions and 31% said they did not. Robinson received 40% support for his positions, but 40% also said they didn’t like his positions.

Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the gubernatorial race, 27% said the economy, 16% said preserving democracy and 13% said education.

When split by party, Republicans named the economy as the top issue at 40%, followed by immigration at 16% and preserving democracy at 11%.

Democrats named their top issue as preserving democracy at 24%, followed by education at 14%, the economy at 12% and 10% said abortion was their top issue.

Independents named their top issue as the economy at 30%, followed by education at 15% and preserving democracy at 13%.

When it comes to the current governor, voters approved of the job Roy Cooper has done in his seven years in office by 12% – 51% to 39%. 

U.S. Senators Ted Budd (29% approval, 42% disapproval) and Thom Tillis (31% approval, 49% disapproval) didn’t fare too well in the poll.

Some of the most interesting numbers to come out of the poll were about the economy. 

Only 31% of voters described the nation’s economy as excellent (5%) or good (26%), while 67% described it either as not so good (30%) or poor (37%) and 53% of voters think the economy is getting worse. Despite those numbers, 60% of those surveyed described their current financial situation as either excellent (9%) or good (51%).

“It’s a head-scratcher when you do the math. Sixty percent of North Carolina’s voters say they are doing just fine financially, but a whopping 67 percent say the nation’s economy is in bad shape,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

The final question Quinnipiac asked voters about was abortion. Sixty-three percent of voters said abortion should be legal in either all cases (27%) or most cases (36%) and 30% said it should be illegal in either most cases (22%) or all cases (8%).

The poll of 1,401 North Carolina self-identified registered voters was conducted from April 4-8 with a margin of error of + / – 2.6%.

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