Source: Axios Raleigh
Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s history of offensive speeches and social media posts is well known at this point, but a comment that went unnoticed until June could be behind his plummeting poll numbers, according to a report from Axios Raleigh.
The comment first gained attention when it appeared on June 5 in an ad by Attorney General Josh Stein, Robinson’s Democratic gubernatorial opponent. The ad featured a video of Robinson saying “Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers. It’s about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.”
Polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight show that the ad had “a near-immediate impact on Robinson’s campaign,” according to Axios. Stein and Robinson were neck-and-neck until July – after Stein’s “skirt” ad was released. Some recent polls show Stein up as much as 14 points on Robinson, although other polls have Stein leading by around five points
As they have since before Robinson became the nominee, both local and national Republicans are expressing worries about his candidacy.
“The ‘skirt’ ad has been the most effective messaging point against Robinson to date,” Republican political operative Paul Shumaker told Axios, “because it speaks beyond the issue of abortion. It speaks to the issue of blaming women.”
Since the “skirt” ad’s release, Robinson has attempted to convince voters that he’s changed his stance on abortion by releasing an ad with his wife where they talk about the abortion they chose 30 years ago. In the ad, Robinson says that he supports the state’s current 12-week ban – despite the plethora of proof that he opposes abortion entirely.
At this point, Stein’s ad looks to be one of the most effective political ads in recent memory. Cook Political Report has moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” and even a Republican-sponsored poll showed Robinson down 10% to Stein and running 13% behind Donald Trump.
Cook Political Report highlighted that non-college educated women are shifting to Stein in recent polls.
“That mirrors what we have heard from both Democratic and Republican sources, who have found in focus groups that even Trump-supporting non-college women were turned off by Robinson’s demeaning comments about women,” they noted, specifically referring to the “skirt” ad.
Former Acting Chief of Staff for Trump, Mick Mulvaney, said in early August, “Trump is being weighed down by a very unpopular Republican candidate for governor” in North Carolina, but polling hasn’t shown that yet.
Shumaker told Axios that polling doesn’t reflect Mulvaney’s claim because Stein’s campaign hasn’t connected Trump and Robinson in their ads up to this point. If they can draw a line between the two candidates then Robinson may drag Trump down with him.
Shumaker, who worked as a campaign adviser to one of Robinson’s primary opponents, credited Stein’s team for defining Robinson so early in the race – and by doing it using Robinson himself.
“Swing voters are sophisticated voters,” Shumaker told Axios. “They think both sides are trying to trick them. The fact that Robinson is the chief spokesperson in their attacks validates their ads.”
